When too big becomes too risky: exploring opportunities beyond mega-caps
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Key takeaways
- The US equity market has demonstrated remarkable resilience over recent years, overcoming challenges such as pandemic disruptions, inflationary pressures, and aggressive US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes while continuing to generate strong returns1.
- As we move forward, Fed policy and pro-growth measures from the Trump administration will be key macro drivers, but elevated valuations in mega-cap tech stocks raise concerns about concentration risk and potential pullbacks.
- Expanding exposure to small caps and equal-weight strategies may offer a more balanced approach, helping investors capture new growth opportunities while mitigating risk in an evolving market landscape2.
The resilience1 of US equities
Despite periods of volatility, US equities have consistently rebounded1 from economic shocks and policy shifts. The market performance over the past decade1 has been largely defined by :
- Pandemic recovery: After the sharp downturn in early 2020, fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy fuelled a rapid rebound, propelling the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite to record highs.1
- Inflation and interest rates: The spike in inflation in 2022 prompted the Federal Reserve to implement aggressive rate hikes, leading to a market correction. However, by 2023 - 2024, inflationary pressures had begun to ease, and equities regained momentum.1
- Tech leadership: The dominance of mega-cap technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, has driven significant market gains.1
Now, in early 2025, the market remains strong, but the road ahead presents new challenges and opportunities.
Key market drivers in 2025
- 1. Federal Reserve Policy
After a two-year period of rapid rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation, the Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, responding to slowing economic growth, and cooling headline inflation, providing a tailwind for equities.3
However, with inflation still above its 2% target, and the central bank seeking greater confidence that it is on a sustained downward path, the Fed paused a further rate cut at its January meeting, signalling a possible cautious approach ahead. We believe this creates both opportunities and risks. Further rate cuts would likely support equities. However, if inflation continues to prove stubborn, it could limit further monetary easing, potentially increasing market volatility.
- 2. Trump Administration’s Economic Policies
With Donald Trump back in the White House, the administration’s pro-business agenda will influence investor sentiment. We believe policies centred around corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending could provide a tailwind for equities.
However, risks remain, particularly from tariffs or trade tensions, which could create market volatility, especially for multinational companies reliant on global supply chains.
The valuation challenge: mega-cap risks
One of the biggest concerns for investors in 2025 is the concentration risk in mega-cap stocks4 . While these stocks have led market gains, their elevated valuations present risks due to their influence on market-cap-weighted indices.
The high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of these firms may suggest lofty earnings expectations, but their heavy weighting in major indices means that a correction in just a few names could significantly drag down the broader index.
While these companies may remain fundamentally strong, investors should be cautious about over-reliance on a small number of names for portfolio performance2.
Looking beyond the ‘giants’
Given the risks associated with mega-cap concentration, broadening exposure to other areas of the market could provide a more balanced investment strategy2.
- 1. Small-cap opportunities
Investor optimism is on the rise for US small-cap stocks, fuelled by expectations of corporate tax cuts, regulatory easing, and improving credit conditions.
Small-cap inflows have accelerated as investors position for a broader economic recovery, with recent data showing one of the strongest quarters of small-cap fund inflows in years (see chart)3.
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Source: Bloomberg, Amundi. Data as at 20/01/2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Small business optimism has surged, with over 50% of small business owners expressing confidence in economic conditions, the highest level since Q4 1983, according to a recent survey5.
Earnings growth estimates point to strong prospects for small caps, with Bloomberg projections indicating significantly higher profit expansion in 2025 and 2026 (see chart).
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Source: Bloomberg, Factset, Amundi. Data as at 23/01/2025.
Information given for indicative purposes only, may change without prior notice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Additionally, small caps have strong exposure to cyclical sectors, which we believe could make them well-positioned to outperform in the early stages of an economic expansion:
- Financials & Industrials: The S&P Small Cap 600 derives about 40% of its revenue from these sectors, whereas the S&P 500 is more concentrated in technology (41%)6.
- Attractive Valuations: Small caps are currently trading at a steep discount compared to large caps, with 12-month forward price-to-book valuations near multi-decade lows, suggesting room for a catch-up rally7.
Overall, we believe rising investor optimism, policy-driven economic tailwinds, and attractive valuations make US small caps an appealing opportunity in 2025.
- 2. The Case for Equal-Weight Strategies
Equal-weight strategies, which distribute capital more evenly across a broad set of equities rather than favouring only the largest companies, have historically reduced concentration risk and allowed for greater participation in economic growth across sectors.
This approach can help investors capture potential gains from underappreciated areas of the market, such as industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks, which may benefit from cyclical economic trends.
Historically, this type of diversified8 allocation has outperformed during periods of broad-based economic recoveries, as leadership rotates beyond just a handful of the largest market players3.
By spreading exposure more evenly across a diverse8 range of stocks, investors may enhance long-term returns while mitigating the risk associated with market concentration in a small group of dominant firms2.
Conclusion: positioning for the future
The US equity market remains resilient, but investors must be prepared for both opportunities and risks in 2025. While monetary policy and pro-growth fiscal measures could provide support, risks related to mega-cap valuations, trade policy, and inflation remain present.
To navigate this evolving landscape, a diversified8 approach, including small caps, and equal-weight strategies offers the potential to provide stronger risk-adjusted returns.
1.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance
2.Investment involves risks. For more information, please refer to the Risk section below.
3.Past market trends are not a reliable indicator of future ones.
4. Mega Cap stocks are defined as companies with market capitalisations in excess of $200 billion.
5. NFIB SURVEY. January 2025. Past market trends are not a reliable indicator of future ones.
6. Source: Bloomberg, Factset, Amundi. Data as at 23/01/2025. Information given for indicative purposes only, may change without prior notice.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
7. Source: Bloomberg, Amundi. Data as at 31/01/2025. Past market trends are not a reliable indicator of future ones.
8. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Information on Amundi’s responsible investing can be found on amundietf.com and amundi.com. The investment decision must take into account all the characteristics and objectives of the Fund, as described in the relevant Prospectus.
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